Why is open risk communication by governments important for a resilient society?
This week Ekaterina Svetlova demonstrates how governments upon which our society places much trust can better anticipate and manage risks. She and her colleagues make a plea for a proactive focus on future risks and the promotion of open and critical communication with the public. She then concludes with a reflection on how the science community support this.
Governments face increasing risks from often interlinked crises like economic downturns, climate change, and political instability. To remain resilient, they must anticipate and manage these risks effectively. In the VU-UT project, “Risk reporting for a safe and resilient society: A comparative study of the UK and the Netherlands”, my co-authors, Prof. Tjerk Budding (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam), Dr. Silvia Pazzi (University of York, UK), and I explored how risk disclosure— the way governments report and communicate risks — can enhance their ability to handle uncertainties and bolster resilience. For example, a Ministry of Justice could report on risks related to a rise in the prison population and the corresponding responses, such as maintaining sufficient facilities and having enough prison personnel and probation officers.
The Link Between Resilience and Risk Reporting
Resilience refers to the ability to absorb shocks, adapt to changing conditions, and recover from crises. The literature on resilience suggests that two essential capacities, coping and anticipatory risk management, are needed in order to strengthen resilience. Coping capacities focus on managing disruptions by adapting existing practices and mitigating the impacts of shocks and crises – for example, measures taken by the British Home Office in response to a refugee crisis such as setting up refugee reception centers, shelter and food provision, and security measures.
By contrast, the capacity to anticipate threats involves identifying and addressing vulnerabilities by monitoring potential threats and managing the risks associated with them. For example, the Home Office could develop data systems to monitor migration trends, adjust visa and asylum policies and strengthen border infrastructure to prevent a refugee crisis.
Our project further develops an important yet often overlooked tool for strengthening the ability to anticipate: the public disclosure of risk. Effective risk disclosure is vital for a government to strengthen resilience by ensuring that potential threats are identified, systematically addressed and effectively communicated to crucial stakeholders such as parliamentarians, media, and citizens.
The Limitations of Risk Reporting in Strengthening Governmental Resilience
Our research focused on central government departments in the UK and the Netherlands. We analyzed annual departmental reports and interviewed risk experts in departments (ministries) to understand how risks are reported to the public and whether this process strengthens resilience.
The findings reveal that risk reporting is often perceived as an exercise to comply with regulations or policies rather than a tool for improving resilience. Many departmental reports tend to focus on risks that a department (ministry) faced in the past year instead of anticipating future challenges. These reports often lack details on how risks are growing and changing over time. Most importantly, governments are often reluctant to acknowledge weaknesses and admit the vulnerabilities in managing risks, fearing political consequences. This limits the ability of policymakers to develop proactive strategies, delays responses, hinders communication with stakeholders and undermines overall resilience.
At the same time, we found that some government departments report risks more transparently than others. Our analysis shows that the distinct risk cultures within departments affect how risk information moves between internal risk management and external risk disclosure, including decisions about which risks are communicated to external users and in what form and which are withheld.
Recommendations resulting from the project
To harness the potential of disclosure of risk to the public as a tool for strengthening government resilience, we recommend that governments:
- Shift the focus from past risks to recognizing future challenges and uncertainties.
- Provide clearer, more specific information to the public instead of generic statements.
- Acknowledge weaknesses and learn from past mistakes in their risk communication to enhance credibility and preparedness.
- Assess the reasons why certain risks are not communicated by departments (e.g., by comparing departmental risk reporting cultures).
In conclusion, the current reporting of risks by the government does not adequately support governmental resilience, particularly in promoting the capacity to anticipate risks. To improve this situation, it is essential for government to establish clearer guidance and promote open, critical communication with the public, thereby enhancing resilience-building efforts.
What we can do
We, as scientists, can play a crucial role in enhancing governmental resilience by improving how risks are identified, analyzed, and communicated in annual reports and through other communication channels. First, scientists can assist with developing more accurate, data-driven risk assessment methods to predict potential crises and improve scenario analysis to help governments prepare for worst-case situations. At the same time, it is important to further refine the tool we developed in our project to assess the quality of departmental risk reporting and its potential contribution to enhancing governmental resilience. Moreover, scientists can advocate for a shift from reactive (past-focused) to anticipatory (future-focused) risk reporting and recommend strategies to increase transparency without causing unnecessary panic. In other words, by applying their expertise, scientists can help governments move beyond compliance-driven, backward-looking risk reporting toward a system that truly enhances resilience.
About the author
Ekaterina Svetlova is an Associate Professor in Finance and Accounting at the University of Twente with research focused on the intersections of technologies, data, and social relations across the domains of financial markets and public sector accounting.
