A new CHOIR article has been published in the Health Care Management Science journal titled: Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 bed occupancy in wardsand Intensive Care Units.
This paper presents a mathematical model that provides a real-time forecast of the number of COVID-19 patients admittedto the ward and the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a hospital based on the predicted inflow of patients, their Length of Stay(LoS) in both the ward and the ICU as well as transfer of patients between the ward and the ICU. The data required forthis forecast is obtained directly from the hospital’s data warehouse. The resulting algorithm is tested on data from the firstCOVID-19 peak in the Netherlands, showing that the forecast is very accurate. The forecast may be visualised in real-timein the hospital’s control centre and is used in several Dutch hospitals during the second COVID-19 peak.
Stef Baas, Sander Dijkstra, Aleida Braaksma, Plom van Rooij, Fieke J. Snijders, Lars Tiemessen and Richard J. Boucherie.
The complete article can be found via this link.