The Syr Darya Basin, shared by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, is a critical water system in Central Asia. However, it faces severe pressures due to competing water demands, climate change-induced sharpening of water scarcity, and population growth. Agriculture dominates water use in the region, accounting for approximately 90% of total water withdrawals (Yan & Tan, 2020). One of the most visible consequences of unsustainable water use in the basin is the dramatic shrinking of the Aral Sea, largely linked to agricultural water consumption.
Virtual water—defined as the water embedded in traded commodities (Hoekstra, 2003) —plays a crucial role in shaping local water security. The trade of water-intensive crops both within and beyond the basin affects regional water balances, influencing food security, economic development, and transboundary water cooperation. Understanding these virtual water flows is essential for developing sustainable water management strategies.
This research aims to provide a comprehensive spatial-temporal assessment of agricultural virtual water trade, considering blue and green water in the Syr Darya Basin, considering both virtual water exports and imports. By examining trade flows, water scarcity indicators, and their spatial-temporal dynamics, to understand the regional dynamics of water and agricultural trade policies.
Research Objectives
The primary objective of this study is to assess the impact of agricultural virtual water trade on water scarcity in the Syr Darya Basin. Specifically, the research will:
- Analyze inter and intra-basin virtual water trade flows, distinguishing between exports and imports of agricultural commodities, considering blue and green water
- Evaluate the impact of virtual water trade on local water scarcity indicators at different spatial and temporal scales
Methodological Approach
The study will adopt a multi-step approach:
- Data Collection & Processing
- Collect existing global datasets on the global virtual water trade.
- To enhance the regional specificity of the analysis, we will incorporate local trade data from sources like SIC-ICWC, stat.uz, stat.gov.kz, and stat.tj.
- Spatial-Temporal Mapping of Virtual Water Trade
- Quantify and visualize trade pattern mapping over time, distinguishing between imported and exported virtual water using GIS or python
- Assess variations across different regions within the Syr Darya Basin
- Assessment of Water Scarcity & Trade Impacts
- Link virtual water flows with local water stress indicators to determine how trade influences regional water availability.
Specific Aspects
This MSc project is closely connected to the European Commission-funded Horizon Europe project ‘Water Efficient Allocation in Central Asian Transboundary River Basin’ (WE-ACT) in which the department is actively involved.
References
- Hoekstra, A. Y. (2003). Virtual water trade. Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, 11, 13–23. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785369131.00016
- Yan, Z., & Tan, M. (2020). Changes in agricultural virtual water in Central Asia, 1992–2016. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 30(11), 1909–1920. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-020-1818-4
Supervision
Are you interested in this assignment? Contact the Master thesis coordinator.
