Keynote Risk & Resilience Festival

Keynote Paul de Ruijter

Scenarioplanning: van risico’s kansen maken

The future is full of risks for the unprepared, but not for those who can foresee the scenarios. They can be one step ahead of the risks and often turn them into opportunities. The corona pandemic, the credit crisis and even the Ukraine war were not “black swans” events, but were foreseen as scenarios by different organizations. Some were better prepared than others. What are the most important scenarios according to the security sector, banks and multinationals? And how do governments and companies prepare for risks such as war, extreme weather, rapid energy transition, new technology or rebellious citizens? Based on practical examples, this session will also highlight the methodology of creating and using scenarios.

Paul de Ruijter Ir

Director De Ruijter Strategie

Paul developed his expertise at Shell Group Planning in London, at the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences in Amsterdam and at Global Business Network.

Through De Ruijter Strategy, Paul has been involved in international strategy projects with clients ranging from cities, NGO’s, ministries, industry associations, multinationals and global institutions. Paul is Executive Lecturer Scenario Based Strategy at Nyenrode University and teaches the University of Amsterdam (Risk Management). He is a renowned speaker at international conferences and seminars.
Together with his team at De Ruijter Strategy, Paul was involved in a large number of scenario based strategy projects, including: “Vision 2020” for pension fund ABP, “The great exodus” for the Netherlands Ministry of Internal Affairs, employers organisations and labour organisations, “Energy Efficiency in Buildings” and “Biotechnology scenarios 2000-2050” for the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, “Defense Explorations” , “Justice the Day After Tomorrow”, “National Security” and “The Electronic Citizen” for several Dutch ministries, “Viewing Futures”, “The Future of Financial Transactions”, “Interest Scenarios” for Rabobank and several trajectories for cities such as Amsterdam and Utrecht.

He is co-author of a book about business opportunities in South-Africa (1992), a book about Industrial Policy in the Netherlands (1999) and a book about scenarios at Rabobank (2004). He has written a chapter in Scenarios for Success (2008) and was the lead author of a handbook on scenarios for the public sector (2004), a book about scenarios and strategy for industry associations (2006). His last book “Scenario based Strategy- Navigate the Future” was published in 2014.