Uncertainty in climate change impacts on extreme discharges of twinning river basins

Short project description

Climate change induced by the increase of the emission of greenhouse gases will have significant effects on spatial and temporal patterns of hydrological relevant variables. Much work has been done on the impact of climate change on hydrological variables. The objective of this project is to detect the uncertainties in the impact of climate change on extreme flows in the Qiangtang River basin in China. GCMs are widely applied for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and projecting climate change. However, there is a mismatch of spatial grid scales between GCMs and hydrological processes at the catchment scale. So we use GCMs to derive boundary conditions for the RCM, and consider the uncertainties from different GCMs, RCMs, scenarios and hydrological model parameters. Using the Monte Carlo method, we calculate different possible combinations and compare the results to determine the effect of uncertainty in climate change and hydrological models on extreme runoff. The analysis of these uncertainties will offer support for policy makers, researchers and water managers to make more robust water policy and management.

Persons involved

Tian Ye BSc (PhD student)

dr. Yueping Xu (daily supervisor in China)

dr. ir. Martijn J. Booij (daily supervisor in the Netherlands)

Publications [see ‘Publications’ for PDF-file or request free hard copy]

Tian, Y., Booij, M.J. and Xu, Y.-P., 2014. Uncertainty in high and low flows due to model structure and parameter errors. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28, 319-332.

Tian, Y., Booij, M., Zhu, Q., Pan, S. and Xu, Y.-P., 2013. Uncertainties of the extreme high flows under climate change impact due to emission scenarios, hydrological models and parameters. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 15, EGU2013-397.

Tian, Y., Xu, Y.P., Booij, M.J. and Cao, L., 2016. Impact assessment of multiple uncertainty sources on high flows under climate change. Hydrology Research, 47, 61-74.

Tian, Y, Xu, Y.-P., Booij, M.J., Lin, S., Zhang, Q. and Lou, Z., 2012. Detection of trends in precipitation extremes in Zhejiang, east China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 107, 201–210.

Tian, Y., Xu, Y.P., Booij, M.J. and Wang, G., 2015. Uncertainty in future high flows in Qiantang River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16, 363-380.

Tian, Y., Xu, Y. Booij, M.J., Zhang, Q. and Lin, S., 2011. Trends in precipitation extremes and long-term memory of runoff records in Zhejiang, east China. In: S.W. Franks, E. Boegh, E. Blyth, D.M. Hannah and K.K. Yilmaz (Eds.), Hydro-climatology: Variability and Change. Proc. Symposium J-H02 at IUGG2011, 28 June-7 July 2011, Melbourne, Australia. IAHS Publ. no. 344, 227-232.

Xu, Y., Tian, Y. and Booij, M., 2013. Uncertainty analysis in future extreme flow projections in Jinhua River Basin, East China. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, H21H-1158.