Appropriate modelling in decision support systems for river basin management

The use of models is essential for model-based decision support systems in river basin management. Often very complicated models are used, which are sometimes more than the needs of decision support systems. The use of too complicated models is also an obstacle for decision makers who seek support. Moreover, the uncertainties from different sources in the models add the difficulty to the decision makers who want to make a sound decision, especially under the situation of comparing (ranking) different river engineering measures. The consideration of uncertainty in this research is thus necessary in order to avoid wrong decisions associated with large losses. While uncertainty in decision- making process is undesirable for decision making, it can be used to help find appropriate models in decision support systems. Therefore, the aim of this PhD research is to develop an appropriate model-based decision support system for river basin management in a systematic way under different sources of uncertainty in the models. The appropriateness of the decision support system can be defined as ‘the system can produce final model outputs from different river engineering measures, which enable the decision makers to distinguish or rank these measures’. An appropriateness framework will be designed in this research to help decision makers make a sound decision under high uncertainties in the model outputs and determine whether the models used in the decision support system are appropriate or not by investigating the role of uncertainty in the model outputs and how the uncertainty affects the ranking of the measures.

Persons involved

dr. Yueping Xu (PhD student)

dr. ir. Martijn J. Booij (daily supervisor)

prof. dr. Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher (promotor)

prof. dr. ir. A.E. Mynett (promotor)

Publications [see ‘Publications’ for PDF-file or request free hard copy]

Xu, Y., 2005. Appropriate modelling in decision support systems for river basin management. PhD-thesis. University of Twente, Enschede, 201 pp., ISBN 90-365-2237-4.

Xu, Y.P and Booij, M.J., 2004. Appropriate models in decision support systems for river basin management. In: M. Morell, O. Todorovik, D. Dimitrov, A. Selenica and Z. Spirkovski (Eds.), Proc. Conference on Water Observation and Information Systems for Decision Support, 25-29 May 2004, Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia,10 pp.

Xu, Y. and Booij, M.J., 2004. Appropriate modelling in DSSs for river basin management. In: C. Pahl-Wostl, S. Schmidt, A.E. Rizzoli and A.J. Jakeman (Eds.), Complexity and Integrated Resources Management. Trans. Second Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (Vol. II), 14-17 June 2004, Osnabrück, Germany, 611-616.

Xu, Y. and Booij, M.J., 2010. Validation of a model appropriateness framework using the Elbe decision support system. In: B. Manos, K. Paparrizos, N. Matsatsinis and J. Papathanasiou (Eds.), Decision Support Systems in Agriculture, Food and the Environment: Trends, Applications and Advances. Information Science Reference, Hershey, New York, 193-218, ISBN: 978-1-61520-881-4.

Xu, Y., Holzhauer, H. and Booij, M.J., 2005. A two-step approach to propagate rating curve uncertainty in Elbe decision support system. In: B-H. Jun, S-I. Lee, I.W. Seo and G-W. Choi (Eds.), Water Engineering for the Future-Choices and Challenges. Proc. XXXI International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research Congress, 11-16 September 2005, Seoul, Korea, 5624-5634.

Xu, Y.-P., Booij, M.J. and Mynett, A.E., 2007. An appropriateness framework for the Dutch Meuse decision support system. Environmental Modelling and Software, 22, 1667-1678.

Xu, Y., Booij, M.J. and Mynett, A.E., 2007. Propagation of discharge uncertainty in a flood damage model for the Meuse River. In: S. Begum, M.J.F. Stive and J.W. Hall (Eds.), Flood Risk Management in Europe: Innovation in Policy and Practice. Series: Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol. 25. Springer, Dordrecht, 293-310, ISBN: 978-1-4020-4199-0.

Xu, Y.P., Holzhauer, H., Booij M.J. and Sun H.Y., 2008. A two-step approach to investigate the effect of rating curve uncertainty in the Elbe decision support system. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 9, 1229-1238.