PUB-Predictions in Ungauged Basins

Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is an initiative that emerged out of discussions between IAHS (International Association of Hydrological Sciences) members on internet and during a series of IAHS sponsored meetings in Maastricht (18-27 July, 2001), Kofu (28-29 March, 2002) and Brasilia (20-22 November, 2002) about the need to reduce the predictive uncertainty in hydrological science and practice. PUB aims to shift the prediction of stream flow, sediment and water quality variables from calibration-based to new, and largely understanding-based methods. It therefore:

•Improves the existing hydrological models in terms of their ability to predict in ungauged basins through appropriate measures of predictive uncertainty, and

•Develops new, innovative models and approaches to capture space-time variability of hydrological processes for making predictions in ungauged basins, with a major reduction in predictive uncertainty

Based on the key science questions underpinning PUB and the two research targets, PUB has identified six Science Themes to serve as a framework for the organization of its research activities. To achieve these targets and the main goals these research programs will be carried out through a global network of underlying working groups comprising interested researchers in any area of prediction in ungauged basins. They will be the “main engines of PUB research activities”. See for more information the PUB website.

The Water Engineering and Management (WEM) group of the University of Twente aims to contribute to this initiative by conducting research on hydrological modelling, parameter estimation and uncertainties related to poorly and ungauged basins. In particular, WEM would like to contribute to the objectives of the Top-Down modelling Working Group (TDWG) within PUB:

•Evaluation of existing models with a view to developing better models

•Exploration of data to develop new modelling approaches

•Development of new models

Organisations involved

•University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands

•International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, the Netherlands

•Top-Down modelling Working Group (TDWG), see TDWG website

•Institute of Mechanics, Hanoi, Vietnam

Publications [see ‘Publications’ for PDF-file or request free hard copy]

Booij, M.J., Deckers, D.L.E.H., Rientjes, T.H.M. and Krol, M.S., 2007. Reduction of predictive uncertainty in flows at ungauged basins. In: E. Boegh, H. Kunstmann, T. Wagener, A. Hall, L. Bastidas, S. Franks, H. Gupta, D. Rosbjerg and J. Schaake (Eds.), Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty for sustainable water resources management. Proc. Symposium HS2004 at IUGG 2007, 2-13 July 2007, Perugia, Italy. IAHS Publ. no. 313, 329-337.

Deckers, D.L.E.H., 2006. Predicting discharge at ungauged catchments. Parameter estimation through the method of regionalisation. MSc-thesis. University of Twente, Enschede.

Deckers, D.L.E.H., Booij, M.J., Rientjes, T.H.M. and Krol, M.S., 2010. Catchment variability and parameter estimation in multi-objective regionalisation of a rainfall-runoff model. Water Resources Management, 24, 3961–3985.

Foppes, S., 2005. Regionalisation based on basin characteristics applied to flood forecasting in the Da River. MSc-thesis. University of Twente, Enschede.