ABSTRACT
"A scenario is a story with plausible cause and effect links that connects a future condition with the present, while illustrating key decisions, events, and consequences throughout the narrative,” writes Jeremy Glenn (2009), elaborating on Herman Kahn’s original idea of a scenario (1967). According to this view, plausibility is a feature of explanations: causal explanations are needed to connect the present to an imagined future. However, socio-technical scenarios do not and cannot always provide compelling causal explanations that link present to future events. In History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future (2007) David Staley puts forward an intriguing proposal to address this problem. He argues that a better model for explanations needed in scenarios can be found in the historical method, that is, the way skillful historians use evidence and inferences to create plausible narratives that represent the past. In this talk, I will explain David Staley’s thesis and critically evaluate it.
Dr. Yashar Saghai, assistant professor BMS-WIJSB
