In the Election Questions series, UT researchers explore how science helps us understand the dilemmas voters face. Check out all the stories related to Dutch Elections.
INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY
According to Vermeulen, low turnout cannot be separated from inequality of opportunity within cities. In neighbourhoods where debt, unemployment and health problems accumulate, the conviction grows that politics is “for others”. “People have concrete experiences that fuel their distrust. From stop-and-search practices to policies that feel as though they work against them,” he says. The result: “People start to think: my vote doesn’t matter anyway.” In Enschede neighbourhoods such as Pathmos, turnout in previous council elections even dropped towards 20 per cent. This is a clear signal of political inequality.
REPRESENTATION AND RESPONSIVENESS
A municipal council that is largely elected by people in more affluent neighbourhoods will also become more responsive to those areas, Vermeulen argues. “The ideas and concerns in underrepresented neighbourhoods often differ from those in areas where people do vote en masse.”
This creates a vicious circle: low turnout → less recognition in policy → even lower trust. “That undermines not only legitimacy, but also the execution of major societal tasks, such as the energy transition in social housing neighbourhoods,” Vermeulen says.
KEY FIGURES AS BRIDGES
So what does work? According to Vermeulen, the answer lies in the concept of “key figures”. These are trusted individuals from within communities who open doors where institutions get stuck. “In Enschede, this is daily practice in the Kernkracht project, co-developed by Enschede policy officer Peter Wilde. Under the direction of a professional, each case is matched with an appropriate key figure. Someone who understands the community’s ‘language’ and social codes from the inside. A small, flexible budget helps them act quickly and build trust. The result is better engagement, fewer escalations and often the reduction of costly support trajectories. You cannot help people outside systems with systems alone.”
“TURNOUT CAMPAIGNS? A WASTE OF MONEY.”
Vermeulen is clear: “Trying to ‘steer’ turnout directly with posters or fines (as in Belgium, where certain elections have compulsory voting, ed.) does not help”, he believes. “You force people to the polling station, but you do not build trust.”
The structure itself must change: long-term neighbourhood contact, genuine listening, and giving residents the space to organise things themselves. “Which also means budgets that don’t immediately get stuck in rules. Give citizens room to act. If every pound has to be justified in paperwork, people drop out again.”
ENGAGEMENT DOES EXIST
Low turnout in cities like Enschede is an indication of broader inequality. “If large sections don’t participate, local politics has a major problem,” Vermeulen says. “But precisely in those neighbourhoods, you also see the solution: people who are already active. Build on that.”
It requires patience and professionalism: being structurally present in neighbourhoods, deploying key figures under proper coordination, giving residents space to experience politics positively in daily life, and addressing feelings seriously rather than dismissing them. “There is no easy solution to get everyone in Enschede to the polling station. But anyone who spends more than an afternoon walking through a neighbourhood will see networks, volunteers and people with genuine dedication to their community. That’s where the energy lies.”
Since 1 October 2025, Floris Vermeulen has been Professor of Urban Political Inequality, Infrastructure and the Social Capital of Marginalised Communities. On 2 April 2026, Vermeulen will deliver his inaugural lecture on this subject.
