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Olympic questions: How likely is a flu epidemic during the Olympics?

When you think about the Olympic Games, you probably think about medals and world records. Thousands of athletes travel from all over the world. They live and train close to each other. In earlier Olympic Games, that raised a serious question: what if flu or COVID spreads quickly in the Olympic Village?

Photo of Kees Wesselink - Schram
Kees Wesselink - Schram
People at olympics in snowy mountains at risk of disease in network theory

In the Olympic questions series, researchers from the University of Twente explore how technology, data and human behaviour come together in elite sport. The series offers a scientific perspective on what we see on the Olympic stage, and what it means beyond top-level performance. In this story, UT researchers Doina Bucur and Clara Stegehuis explain how connections between people influence how diseases spread.

These Olympics are different

To answer this question, Doina Bucur first gathered data. Bucur: “There are around 2,900 athletes. If you include coaches and staff, that number roughly doubles.” In many past editions, most participants lived together in one large Olympic Village. That creates a highly connected network: many people, many contacts, many possible paths for a virus.

This time, the structure is different. There are six Olympic villages, separated by literal mountains. Bucur analysed the official capacity of the villages and their geographical positions. Inside each village, people live close together. They share dining halls, buses and common spaces. In network science, this is called a dense community: many internal connections.
The six loosely connected Olympic Villages on satellite image from ESA

Between the villages, however, there are far fewer contacts. Moving casually from one village to another is almost impossible. In network terms, the communities are only weakly connected. Together, they form a network with a strong community structure.

Why community structure matters

Clara Stegehuis studies how epidemics spread in networks with this kind of structure. Her research shows a clear pattern. When a virus enters one dense community, it can spread quickly within that group. But it is much harder for the virus to jump to another community. The most important factor is the number of connections between groups. These “inter-community links” act like bridges. If there are only a few bridges, it becomes difficult for an epidemic to spread widely.

At these Olympics, each village acts almost like its own small world. If flu enters, it may infect many people there. But whether it becomes a Games-wide outbreak depends on the bridges between villages. And at these Games, there are very few of them. Compared to a single large Olympic Village, this structure significantly reduces the probability of a Games-wide outbreak.

Is there no risk?

No. Inside a single village, especially the larger ones such as Milano or Cortina, a virus could still spread quickly. These are densely connected communities with more than a thousand residents. If flu enters one village, many within that group could become infected. The difference is scale. Because the villages are weakly connected to each other, an outbreak is more likely to remain local. The six-village structure does not eliminate the risk, but it reduces the chance that one infection turns into a Games-wide epidemic.

There is another factor: spectators. Athletes and national teams move in structured ways between training venues and accommodation. Spectators, however, travel more freely between locations. They can create extra connections between otherwise separate communities. They may form new bridges. That means the internal structure of the Games may slow down spread, but public movement still plays a role.

Networks are everywhere

For Bucur, the Olympics are just one example of how networks shape the world. She studies networks in many systems, from soil ecosystems to the night sky. The same mathematical ideas apply. In soil, for example, billions of microorganisms live together in complex networks. Bacteria exchange nutrients, compete for space and sometimes support each other. Some species act as hubs. If they disappear, the whole system can become unstable. Bucur studies which species are tightly connected and which ones form bridges between groups. That structure helps determine whether soil stays healthy and how crops grow.

She also compares star maps from different cultures. Around the world, communities have connected stars into constellations in their own ways. Yet despite large cultural differences, some patterns are surprisingly similar. People often connect the brightest stars in simple, efficient shapes. Network analysis shows that the human brain may prefer certain structures when it looks at the sky.

A different way of watching the Games

When you watch the Olympics, you see sports and medals. Network scientists see something else: patterns of connection. Who meets whom? How often? And how are communities linked? Those invisible patterns help determine whether a virus spreads, whether soil remains fertile, and even how we draw pictures in the stars.

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