Major international conflicts
What are the most important international issues to keep an eye on right now? At times, it seems as though too much is happening in the world to keep track of it all. Moreover, circumstances can change very quickly. Melle Scholten currently identifies three categories. “First, the ‘hot conflicts’ close to home: Ukraine and Gaza. Despite the peace agreement between Hamas and the Netanyahu government, the situation remains fragile. Because of the intensity of these conflicts and their relative proximity, they capture the imagination of many Dutch people the most. Second, there is the simmering ‘New Cold War’ between China and the United States. At present, it receives less attention, although the recent Nexperia affair once again demonstrated that this conflict is also important for us. The final category comprises conflicts that are serious but do not directly affect the Netherlands. Examples include the conflict in Sudan, skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, or attacks by the US Navy on Venezuelan vessels in the Caribbean, to name but a few.”
Caretaker cabinet means less status
The October 2025 elections mean: new ministers, new policies and new dynamics. Do the major parties that may form a coalition differ greatly in their views on these conflicts, or will they find common ground? “In the past, foreign policy was highly technical, and there were few political disagreements about it. Today, that is no longer the case, largely because the average citizen sees far more information about international conflicts in the news. Nevertheless, I see many similarities between the likely coalition partners,” says Scholten. “In fact, almost every party has indicated that it wants to meet the 5 per cent benchmark for Defence. What remains uncertain is the extent to which they prefer cooperation with the Americans within NATO or investing in security with European partners. I do not expect this to become a major sticking point during the coalition talks, but it was not all that long ago that a cabinet collapsed over support for the Americans in Afghanistan.”
Scholten argues that globalisation means events elsewhere in the world have a more direct impact on life in the Netherlands than before. “Global production chains ensure that the war in Ukraine affects the price of semiconductor microchips. This, in turn, influences relations between Taiwan and China and the prices of electronics in our shops. Because developments abroad now also affect our daily lives, you see party politics increasingly focusing on how much support should go to Ukraine, or how firmly our leaders should speak out on proposals by members of the Israeli government to ethnically cleanse Gaza.”
Does this mean the coalition talks have no bearing on our diplomacy? “Absolutely not, because our international partners and opponents are well aware that the current cabinet is a caretaker one,” says Scholten. “Imagine you are a diplomat from a foreign power negotiating with your counterpart in the Netherlands right now; you know that the current guidelines could easily change once the new cabinet is sworn in. It is therefore difficult for other countries to take the Dutch government seriously at this moment. The sooner the coalition is complete, the better for our standing on the world stage.”
Universities and major conflicts
What do these conflicts mean for Dutch universities? “In fact, these various conflicts cannot really be compared. The bloodshed in Gaza mainly causes uproar among students, but so far it has led to little regulation from the government.” With China, it is exactly the opposite, Scholten explains: “That hardly resonates among students, yet there is considerable pressure from the security services to minimise cooperation with universities from that country, especially when it concerns so-called ‘dual-use’ technologies – knowledge that could potentially be applied for military purposes. Of course, it is not our intention at UT to share sensitive knowledge indiscriminately, but we must also be careful not to go too far in decoupling. Scientific collaboration between China and the West has resulted in major breakthroughs in breast cancer research and the prevention of congenital disorders.”
Predictions: a black swan event?
Does Scholten have any advice for the new cabinet? Something they should be particularly alert to during the 2026–2030 period? “I just happened to leave my crystal ball at home this morning!” Scholten jokes. “But seriously, these things are almost impossible to predict. For foreign policy, it is crucial to remain flexible, ready to respond to new developments and to have contingency plans in the drawer. The likelihood of China seizing Taiwan, Israel and Iran starting a direct war, or Russia attacking a NATO member state in the next five years is extremely small. Small, but not zero. It would be what is known as a ‘black swan event’: highly, almost impossibly unlikely, but if it does happen, we are all in trouble. I would be very surprised if such plans were not already sitting in a cupboard at Foreign Affairs or Defence. But I am rather a cynic, and it might not be a bad idea to update them every few months, just to be sure.”
Melle Scholten obtained his PhD in April 2025 at the University of Virginia (United States) on the political and socio-economic consequences of emigration and return migration. He is an expert in international and comparative political economy.
