Safety risks and uncertainties in the energy transition

Thursday 21 May 2026

The energy transition offers significant opportunities for a more sustainable society, but at the same time introduces new and partly still unknown safety challenges. This was the central message of Professor Nils Rosmuller’s inaugural lecture today, which focuses on the risks, uncertainties, and changing nature of safety within the future energy system.

The core message is that the transition to sustainable energy does not necessarily lead to a less safe society, but rather to a fundamentally different risk profile. While fossil energy sources have their own well-known hazards, renewable energy sources and energy carriers introduce new types of incidents, effects, and dependencies.

New risks in a changing energy system

The energy transition encompasses a broad range of changes in energy production, transport, storage, and use. Each of these components involves its own safety risks and uncertainties. These concern not only technical risks, but also societal and organisational factors that influence safety.

Examples include the deployment of new technologies closer to citizens, changing energy supply chains, the involvement of inexperienced stakeholders, and the lack of extensive datasets. In addition, legislation and regulation do not always keep pace with rapid technological developments, which may result in so-called “lagging regulation.”

Different types of incidents and impacts

According to Rosmuller’s analysis, the energy transition does not automatically imply a deterioration in safety, but rather a shift in the types of incidents that may occur. New energy sources bring different scenarios than traditional fossil-based systems. As a result, both the potential impacts and how incidents unfold and affect society are changing.

Uncertainty as a structural condition

An important insight is that uncertainty is not a temporary issue but a structural feature of the energy transition. The combination of technological innovation, limited historical data, and complex interdependencies within supply chains makes it difficult to fully predict or quantify risks.

These uncertainties call for a broader perspective on safety—one that considers not only calculated risks, but also explicitly addresses unknown and difficult-to-model effects.

Towards a broader approach to safety

Rosmuller therefore advocates an integrated approach to safety. Concepts such as safety by design, a supply-chain perspective, and integrated safety analyses play an important role in this approach. By incorporating safety considerations from the design phase onwards, and by focusing not only on individual components but on the energy system as a whole, society can better respond to the complexity of the transition.

In addition, explicit attention to uncertainty is considered essential to reflect the dynamic nature of risks.

Precaution as a guiding principle

Finally, the importance of the precautionary principle is emphasized, as formulated by the Scientific Council for Government Policy in 2008. This principle calls for caution in situations where knowledge about risks is incomplete, but where potential consequences may be significant.

The conclusion is clear: ensuring safety in the energy transition requires a broader perspective. Not only technical risks, but also uncertainties, system dynamics, and societal context must be explicitly incorporated into policy and design.

The accompanying summary figure visually illustrates these interconnections between risks, mechanisms, and approaches.