Princess Margriet visited the ITC Faculty of the University of Twente this week to be updated on recent developments surrounding the chair named after her: Data for Disaster Resilience. The princess visited the university with her new private secretary, Ela van Hoogstraten, and met with the researchers involved, led by Professor Marc van den Homberg, chairholder. Heleen Kersten, chair of the board of the Netherlands Red Cross, was also present.
The visit focused on strengthening the relationship between the university, the Red Cross, and Princess Margriet’s chair. It also provided an opportunity to share the latest research insights and to hear Princess Margriet’s perspective on these developments. The meeting took place in the “Design and Interactive Room” at ITC, where various projects are developed through co-creation. At the start of the presentations, ITC dean Freek van der Meer presented the sculpture “De Kronkel”, the world-famous ITC symbol for aerial mapping. Van den Homberg then gave a presentation on the results achieved through the collaboration, ongoing research, and plans.
First early action protocol for cholera
Van den Homberg: “The most important contribution of ITC research to the operational work of the Red Cross is the trigger models for Early Action Protocols. In 2024, for example, we achieved a breakthrough in developing a trigger model for a climate-sensitive, waterborne disease: cholera. Four students from different universities, including ITC (UT) and Delft, contributed to this research. The result was the first Early Action Protocol for cholera (in Cameroon), which was approved worldwide by the Red Cross.”
Data and digital tools
PhD student Sahara Sedhain then spoke about her research titled “Assessing the suitability and performance of trigger models for anticipatory actions.” She investigates how data and digital tools can support timely assistance to vulnerable communities before disasters occur. “I collaborate with 510, the Netherlands Red Cross, and use case studies from high-risk areas to improve the effectiveness of forecast-based interventions.” Sahara is also working on a case study in her home country, Nepal.
Scientific evaluations show two types of models: a machine learning model and a model based on damage curves. Impact-based forecasts for cyclones can improve upon weather forecasts alone by providing better insight into expected damage and aid needs. The damage curve model is more transparent, while the AI model offers more detail. A model-mapping method has been developed for comparison, which can also be applied to other natural hazards. In addition, several flood models, including Google Flood Hub and GloFAS, have been compared to extend the prediction horizon. Although AI models are developing rapidly, thorough evaluation is still limited due to a lack of sufficient hindcast data.
Flooding in the Netherlands
Finally, the discussion addressed how to implement anticipatory action in the Netherlands, focusing on flooding. Marc explained how the Netherlands Red Cross is using a participatory process to mobilise, inform, and activate communities to strengthen their resilience against floods. Professor Jetten noted that floodwater is never clean; it is dangerous because it contains chemicals, and people have even developed skin rashes from it. Residents in Limburg believe the government should solve these problems, but after the floods, they also made adjustments to their homes themselves, for example, replacing wooden floors with tiles because they are easier to clean in the future.
Professor Victor Jetten then discussed how nature-based solutions can be used to reduce flood risks. This requires modelling to determine how effective measures such as vegetation cover and rain buffers are in absorbing heavy rainfall. The Netherlands Red Cross focuses globally on nature-based solutions, including in the Netherlands.
Red Cross: stronger together
In the Netherlands, many initiatives exist to inform people about risks and how to reduce them. Samen Sterker (“Stronger Together”) is a participatory process that activates communities to increase their resilience, with special attention to the most vulnerable. The pilot was developed through collaboration between the Limburg region and the International Assistance department of the Netherlands Red Cross (NRK). The NRK works in a community-based approach in all Global South countries. Their research is driven by what is needed to provide better humanitarian aid to people affected by natural disasters and crises. The Limburg region actively uses the knowledge and expertise gained from the NRK’s international experience.
Princess Margriet fund
The core message of the Princess Margriet Fund formed the common thread: better preparing people for disasters. Due to climate change and extreme weather, the number of people in need worldwide is increasing. According to the organisations involved, it is both humane and economically wise to take preventive action. Applied scientific research in the field of data and disaster resilience plays a crucial role in this, as it can save lives and reduce the impact of disasters.
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