Alumnus Nadia

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Nadia is fascinated by extreme weather and chose for a study in mathematics.

How the film Twister determined Nadia’s future

‘When I first saw the film Twister, I knew for sure: I want to research extreme weather like tornadoes, cyclones and thunderstorms in the future!' Nadia says. Currently Nadia is doing a PhD research titled Tropical cyclone flood risk under climate change and has made her dream come true. She constructed a mathematical model that can analyse tropical cyclone activity all around the globe. Nadia: 'We need to make a targeted risk analysis to be able to assess what the risks of a tropical cyclone are. We are also dealing with the fact that tropical cyclones strongly interact with environmental factors. To be able to simulate this, I applied statistical modeling, making full use of my mathematical background!’

Why did you opt for the bachelor of Mathematics?

Nadia: 'I knew early on that I wanted to dive in meteorology and extreme weather, but of course, you need a good basis for that. I quickly learned that our atmosphere and weather phenomena can be described using formulas and models, so you need to have a good understanding of how to work with those. After a visit to the open day at the University of Twente, it was very clear to me that this basis would come from the Bachelor's in Applied Mathematics, especially in Twente. For me this was - and still is - a perfect choice.’

Nadia, alumna

I wanted to dive in meteorology and extreme weather and needed a good basis for that.

Nadia, alumna

Were you sufficiently challenged?

Nadia: 'Of course I faced many challenges. That likely applies to anyone who decides to study. Life at a university is completely different from what you were used to. Just think about the study pace, that's a bit higher at a university of course! In addition, I went to live on my own and had to take care of myself. Not only your study life changes, but also everyday life.’ So what do you have to think about? She continues: ‘Just think of everything your parents used to do for you while you were still living at home: cooking your own meals, grocery shopping, laundry, housekeeping, etc. It may take a while before you find your drive, but then it will be really fun. I became a member of the study association Abacus, was on the introduction committee of mathematics to help new students get started by organising a great introduction period and together with a number of fellow students I published an almanac. A really cool time!’

Did the programme meet your stormy dreams?

‘Yes, formulas, mathematical calculations and modelling are not to be missed! In the third year you can choose a minor in a different field than mathematics. I chose the minor Geo data & spatial modelling. This minor was not directly related to meteorology, but taught me how to make landscape maps for different target groups. At the same time, you learned how to assess the value of maps, what the symbols mean and how satellites work. We analysed different sort of satellite products and what you can use them for, such as infrared maps, and black-and-white bands. All those bands are particularly useful in the field of meteorology, since they can show temperatures and water contents in the air and clouds. So there was already a bit of meteorology in my minor. I still benefit from choosing mathematics,' Nadia explains.

Nadia, alumna

I still benefit from choosing mathematics.

Nadia, alumna

Was the choice of a Master complicated?

Nadia: 'Of course, for me, it was not at all. Unfortunately, the University of Twente did not offer a meteorological programme, so I had to go elsewhere. Because I gained such a fantastic foundation in my mathematical bachelor, I could easily go anywhere for my master's. I chose the Master’s Meteorology Physical Oceanography & Climate (now called Climate Physics) in Utrecht. In this master I was very attracted to how the atmosphere works, and how extreme weather phenomena like thunderstorms and tropical cyclones are formed. During my master’s thesis, I did an assignment at KNMI. Using their own operational weather model, I looked at the influence of soil moisture on the temperature. The water in the ground can evaporate, hereby cooling down air temperatures on warm days. However, something went wrong in the model, causing air temperatures to easily exceed 40°C on warm summer days, which is not really realistic for the Netherlands. My Bachelor’s degree in Applied Mathematics turned out to be really handy here! Using my mathematical knowledge, I built a new version of this evaporation model, which is now implemented in a new version of the operational weather model. Within my PhD research, I also regularly have to improve existing models by using my mathematical knowledge.’

And now performing PhD research in the field of extreme weather?

‘Yes, I still don't have enough of it all and am still learning a lot. Doing research on your favorite theme is, of course, a dream come true. It's incredibly exciting work,’ Nadia laughs. Nadia has built her own ‘synthetic model’ using her mathematical background. This model “creates” its own cyclones, taking into account different factors such as their general direction of movement and their interaction with the environment.

 

With this mathematical model you can make sure that there are enough cyclones along the coast to perform a risk assessment and calculate the probability that a tropical cyclone with a certain intensity will occur in any given year. Moreover, it is now also possible to say something about the change in these probabilities under climate change – regions that now have a 1% chance of being struck by a tropical cyclone of a given intensity in any given year, might see a doubling of this chance under climate change. This is because tropical cyclones are expected to grow stronger under climate change.’ Nadia says.

In America, tropical cyclone protection standards such as dikes and coastal walls are built for a 1-in-100-year storm (1% chance annually). half Netherlands under waterThese storms –locally known as hurricanes - cause enormous flooding and the local governments must be prepared for it. For comparison, in our country, protection standards are designed for a 1-in-10,000-year storm: the ultimate “super storm”. Nadia: ‘With my model we can calculate how high the waves will be and how high your dikes must be to protect the people. The heights of our dikes have been estimated using a similar approach, and are continuously re-calculated whenever new information on climate change and sea-level rise becomes available. Our dikes are therefore high enough and so solidly built that they can withstand the waves of strong storms. This is also utterly necessary: half our country is below sea-level and would be flooded in case such a dike would fail during a strong storm. The Netherlands would be bankrupt in no-time, since most of our economies is in the western part of the country, but also because our insurance companies will not be able to cover the costs in the event of such a large flood. It is therefore crucial to keep simulating any changes in sea-level under climate change, and to keep improving and maintaining our dikes wherever necessary.

The tropical cyclones that are raging over the Atlantic Ocean currently do not have the ability to reach Europe on full-force. But due to climate change, this might change. This is because the sea water is expected to get warmer under climate change, and tropical cyclones need sea-surface temperatures of at least 27.5°C to keep their intensity. Therefore, if warmer sea waters extend further northward, it becomes possible for tropical cyclones to reach Europe and even the Netherlands before they die out. A recent example of this was Hurricane Ophelia, which formed as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean. However, after weakening a bit and becoming an extratropical cyclone (the strong type of storms we get here in Europe), it managed to keep enough of its intensity to struck Ireland as a hurricane-force storm in October 2017. Scientists expect such events to happen more frequently in the future.’

Nadia, alumna

I am happy to do my part and protect the people with science.

Nadia, alumna

At this moment, Nadia's mathematical model can determine how the tropical cyclones are formed, how many will occur and how they move. In the future this model will be extended to also include the extratropical cyclones. This way, she can calculate how high our risk is for “the ultimate super storm”, and how we can improve our dikes to protect ourselves against it. Nadia: 'I am happy to do my part and protect the people with science!’

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