Juan Pablo Aguilar Lopez

Name: Juan Pablo Aguilar Lopez
Water Engineering & Management
Tel. Secretary: 
+31-53-489 3546
PhD student

Postal Address:
University of Twente
Faculty of Engineering Technology
Department of Water Engineering & Management
P.O. Box 217
7500 AE Enschede


Colombian Civil Engineer who obtained his Bachelor’s degree at the Colombian School of Engineering “Julio Garavito” in the year 2005. During the next two years he worked as a consultant in river modeling and surface hydrology along with his side work as a guest lecturer in the hydraulics lab of same university for the subjects of open channels and close conduits flow. He also coursed a post degree in Hydraulic resources and environmental engineering which he concluded with a research on peak flow estimation in sewer systems by the study of a real scaled model.

After obtaining his degree (2007) he was hired by INGETEC, an Infrastructure consultancy company in Colombia. During the next 3 years he worked as a designer and project planner in the departments of hydraulics, hydrology, project management and Hydropower planning where he had the opportunity to work as a planner,  designer and modeler. At the end of 2009 he gained an scholarship to course a Master in Water Science in the field of Hydroinformatics at UNESCO-IHE in Delft, The Netherlands. He graduated on April of 2011 after defending his research Thesis in “Improvement of water quality by Optimizing an upstream reservoir” as part of the Dutch project FORESEE with collaboration from Deltares. After graduating he worked for 6 months at the Water Management department of the same Institute as a developer of the simulation role play game of a water utility company for training managers in decision making for Vitens-Evides.

In June 2012 he started his PhD at the Water Engineering and Management Department at the Universiteit Twente.         


Multi-functional flood defences are subject to failure mechanisms that have different probability of occurrence than conventional flood defences as loads become more randomly distributed and uncertain. These need to be inventoried, modeled and given a place within the current and future safety philosophy. Furthermore, the safety philosophy is changing more and more in the direction of a system probability of failure approach which is not totally compatible with the deterministic design common practice.

Within this research, it is intended to develop a methodology which can produce deterministic design factors (Failure Mechanisms Safety Factors) based on probabilistic generated results from reliability studies validated with models. The design safety factors are used by designers in order to consider the uncertainty implied in the design parameters such as geometry, material characteristic values and loads as some of the most important. In order to estimate this values, it is important to consider their influence in the reliability equations (load and resistance) as well as their applicability given their uncertainty.     


Bsc. Degree in Civil engineer
Escuela Colombiana de Ingenieria “Julio Garavito” 1999-2004 Colombia

Pos-degree Specialist in Hydraulic Resources and Environmental Engineering
Escuela Colombiana de Ingenieria “Julio Garavito” 2005-2007 Colombia 

Msc. Water Science and Engineering – specialized in Hydroinformatics
UNESCO-IHE 2009-2011, the Netherlands 


April 2012 - present: PhD Candidate at University of Twente.
'Topic: ‘Multi-functional flood Defenses Safety Assessment’.
Enschede, the Netherlands 

June 2011 – December 2011: Program assistant at UNESCO-IHE
Water Management Role Play Game Simulation – Vitens-Evides
Delft, the Netherlands 

March 2007 – October 2009: Design Engineer at INGETEC S.A.
Hydropower Development - Project planning department
Bogota, Colombia 

February 2005 – February 2006: Lab Lecturer at E.C.I. “Julio Garavito”
Hydraulic Resources Department – Civil engineering faculty
Bogota, Colombia 

February 2005 – October 2009: Water Engineer – Aguilar Consultoria
Hydrology, Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering
Bogota, Colombia


Aguilar Lopez, J.P., Warmink, J.J., Schielen, R.M.J. & Hulscher, S.J.M.H. (2016). Soil stochastic parameter correlation impact in the piping erosion failure estimation of riverine flood defences. Structural safety, 60, 117-129. 10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.01.004

Aguilar Lopez, J.P., Warmink, J.J., Schielen, R.M.J. & Hulscher, S.J.M.H. (2015). Correlation effect in probabilistic design against piping in multi-functional flood defences, doi: 10.3233/978-1-61499-580-7-239. In T. Schweckendiek, A.F. van Tol, D. Peereboom, A. van Staveren & P.M.C.B.M. Cools (Eds.), Geotechnical Safety and Risk V (pp. 239-244). Amsterdam: IOS.

Surrogate modeling for failure probability estimation of multifunctional flood defences (Conference Paper) -IAHR2015 World Congress - Den Haag-Netherlands, Aguilar López, J. P., Warmink, J. J., Schielen, R. M. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2015).  

Data-driven surrogate models for flood defence failure estimation: "Jarillon de Calí" (Conference Paper). 11th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Hydro informatics, Aguilar López, J. P., Warmink, J. J., Schielen, R. M. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2014). New York City, UA. 

Hydrodynamic and water quality surrogate modelling for reservoir operation (Conference Paper). 11th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Hydro informatics Aguilar Lopez, J. P., Van Andel, S. J., Werner, M., and Solomatine, D. P. (2014). New York City, USA. 

Flood defence design parameters correlation influence on failure probability - Case study of piping (Conference Paper). 3rd IAHR Europe Congress - Water Engineering and Research Aguilar López, J. P., Warmink, J. J., Schielen, R. M. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2013). Porto, Lisbon.