PhD Defences

The Twente Water Centre is pleased to announce the PhD Defence of Mr. Changbo Qin!

Mitigating China’s Water Scarcity and Pollution: Environmental and Economic Accounting, Modeling and Policy Analysis

To be held on

Nov 18^th, at 14:30

ITC Auditorium

Under the umbrella of the Twente Water Cetnre, Changbo’s research was completed in a collaborative effort between ITC and CSTM. Please read below for a detailed summary of his research.

Qin_Changbo

Summary

The economic success in China has come at the expense of over exploitation of natural resources and huge impacts on the environment and especially water resources. Environmental and ecological losses are increasing as a consequence of water scarcity and pollution due to humans overindulging in their increasingly prosperous lifestyles afforded by industrialization. Considering the complex issues involving water, environment, food security, population growth and economic development, sustainable development in China has been facing unprecedented challenges. To mitigate China’s water scarcity and pollution, several water management and pollution control strategies were adopted by Chinese government.

The main objective of the study is to develop the environmental input-output model and environmental computable general models, and apply them to investigate the inter-relationships between environment and economy, and assess the economy-wide effects of water management and pollution control strategies/mechanisms for mitigating China’s water scarcities and pollutions.

First, the study developed a hybrid input-output accounting and modelling framework to investigate the inter-relationship between economy and water consumption/pollution in the Haihe River Basin. Within the environmental IO framework, a series of assessment indicators is calculated to assist in tracking both direct and indirect effects of freshwater consumption and wastewater discharge in the economic sector, as well as to distinguish the economic sectors that have greatest influence on water demand and pollution.

Second, an econometric-driven, multi-regional, multi-sectoral water extended computable general equilibrium model was presented to analyze the effectiveness of measures and policies for mitigating North China’s water scarcity issues with respect to three different scenario groups. Experimental results of the scenario for reducing groundwater indicate that a reduction in the water supply level has a severe negative impact on the economy and household welfare. Experimental results of the scenario for the South-to-North Water Transfer project indicate that construction of the project has a positive impact on economic development, household welfare, and environmental sustainability. Experimental results of the scenario for reallocating water from agriculture to the industrial and service sectors show that transferring water from a low-value sector to high-value sectors has a positive impact on the macro-economy and household welfare, and promotes economic restructuring from a low water efficiency sector to relatively high water efficiency sectors.

Third, a comparative-static computable general equilibrium model with a water extension was presented to investigate the economy-wide impacts of charging water resource fee in China. It was found that imposing water taxes can redistribute sectoral water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, value-added gains, and trade patterns. Sectors not imposing water levies are nonetheless affected by the introduction of taxes from other sectors. Specifically for China, water taxes imposed on the agricultural sector drives most of the effects on sectoral water reallocation, shifts in production, consumption and trade patterns as well as welfare changes.

Fourth, an extended environmental dynamic computable general equilibrium model was applied to assess the economic consequences of implementing total emission control policy by simulating different emission reduction scenarios, with reductions ranging from 20 to 50% of the emission levels in 2007 by the year 2020. The results indicated that a modest total emission reduction target can be achieved at a low macroeconomic cost. With the stringency of policy targets, macroeconomic cost (for example, GDP loss, NNI loss and welfare loss) will increase at an increasing rate. It was also found that stringent environmental policy can lead to an important shift in production, consumption, and trade patterns, from dirty sectors to relatively clean sectors. To certify the positive impact of tradable emission permits, a second version of the model with a non-tradable emission permits system is also developed. Comparative results showed that macroeconomic cost can be reduced via the trading of emission permits, and thus emission permit trading experiments by local governments should be further encouraged. It is highly recommended that efforts are made to establish emission permit trading mechanism at the national level.

In this thesis, based on different problems and corresponding mitigation measures, several different environmental economic models were developed to investigate the inter-relationship between environment and economy. It was found that the input-output techniques and computable general equilibrium models are useful tools to analyze the impacts of each different measure/policy on the economic, social and environmental variables. They can draw important policy implications and provide policy recommendations to decision-makers. This study could be viewed as a research contribution to the efforts to address the issue of natural resource degradation and environmental pollution generated by both climate change and human activities.

Keywords: Water scarcity; Water shortage; Water tax; Virtual water; Water management; Environmental policy; Total emission control; Water transfer; Emission permit trading; Input-output technique; Computable general equilibrium.

Biography

Qin Changbo began to pursue a Ph.D degree in the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) and Twente Centre for Studies in Technology and Sustainable Development, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands since March 2007. Qin Changbo earned an M.Sc degree in Environmental Science from Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES) in Beijing, China and a B.Sc degree in Environmental Engineering from Southeast University in Nanjing, China.

Qin Changbo works in Environmental Strategy Institute, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning since June 2011. Qin Changbo’s current research focuses on environmental planning, environmental economics, computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, application of input-output techniques, water management, environmental and trade policy analysis.

	Home > Research > PhD Defences
<< Home Home News Research PhD Defences Publications Water games Projects Organisation Search	PhD Defences \| Publications \| Water games PhD Defences The Twente Water Centre is pleased to announce the PhD Defence of Mr. Changbo Qin! Mitigating China’s Water Scarcity and Pollution: Environmental and Economic Accounting, Modeling and Policy Analysis To be held on Nov 18^th, at 14:30 ITC Auditorium Under the umbrella of the Twente Water Cetnre, Changbo’s research was completed in a collaborative effort between ITC and CSTM. Please read below for a detailed summary of his research. Summary The economic success in China has come at the expense of over exploitation of natural resources and huge impacts on the environment and especially water resources. Environmental and ecological losses are increasing as a consequence of water scarcity and pollution due to humans overindulging in their increasingly prosperous lifestyles afforded by industrialization. Considering the complex issues involving water, environment, food security, population growth and economic development, sustainable development in China has been facing unprecedented challenges. To mitigate China’s water scarcity and pollution, several water management and pollution control strategies were adopted by Chinese government. The main objective of the study is to develop the environmental input-output model and environmental computable general models, and apply them to investigate the inter-relationships between environment and economy, and assess the economy-wide effects of water management and pollution control strategies/mechanisms for mitigating China’s water scarcities and pollutions. First, the study developed a hybrid input-output accounting and modelling framework to investigate the inter-relationship between economy and water consumption/pollution in the Haihe River Basin. Within the environmental IO framework, a series of assessment indicators is calculated to assist in tracking both direct and indirect effects of freshwater consumption and wastewater discharge in the economic sector, as well as to distinguish the economic sectors that have greatest influence on water demand and pollution. Second, an econometric-driven, multi-regional, multi-sectoral water extended computable general equilibrium model was presented to analyze the effectiveness of measures and policies for mitigating North China’s water scarcity issues with respect to three different scenario groups. Experimental results of the scenario for reducing groundwater indicate that a reduction in the water supply level has a severe negative impact on the economy and household welfare. Experimental results of the scenario for the South-to-North Water Transfer project indicate that construction of the project has a positive impact on economic development, household welfare, and environmental sustainability. Experimental results of the scenario for reallocating water from agriculture to the industrial and service sectors show that transferring water from a low-value sector to high-value sectors has a positive impact on the macro-economy and household welfare, and promotes economic restructuring from a low water efficiency sector to relatively high water efficiency sectors. Third, a comparative-static computable general equilibrium model with a water extension was presented to investigate the economy-wide impacts of charging water resource fee in China. It was found that imposing water taxes can redistribute sectoral water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, value-added gains, and trade patterns. Sectors not imposing water levies are nonetheless affected by the introduction of taxes from other sectors. Specifically for China, water taxes imposed on the agricultural sector drives most of the effects on sectoral water reallocation, shifts in production, consumption and trade patterns as well as welfare changes. Fourth, an extended environmental dynamic computable general equilibrium model was applied to assess the economic consequences of implementing total emission control policy by simulating different emission reduction scenarios, with reductions ranging from 20 to 50% of the emission levels in 2007 by the year 2020. The results indicated that a modest total emission reduction target can be achieved at a low macroeconomic cost. With the stringency of policy targets, macroeconomic cost (for example, GDP loss, NNI loss and welfare loss) will increase at an increasing rate. It was also found that stringent environmental policy can lead to an important shift in production, consumption, and trade patterns, from dirty sectors to relatively clean sectors. To certify the positive impact of tradable emission permits, a second version of the model with a non-tradable emission permits system is also developed. Comparative results showed that macroeconomic cost can be reduced via the trading of emission permits, and thus emission permit trading experiments by local governments should be further encouraged. It is highly recommended that efforts are made to establish emission permit trading mechanism at the national level. In this thesis, based on different problems and corresponding mitigation measures, several different environmental economic models were developed to investigate the inter-relationship between environment and economy. It was found that the input-output techniques and computable general equilibrium models are useful tools to analyze the impacts of each different measure/policy on the economic, social and environmental variables. They can draw important policy implications and provide policy recommendations to decision-makers. This study could be viewed as a research contribution to the efforts to address the issue of natural resource degradation and environmental pollution generated by both climate change and human activities. Keywords: Water scarcity; Water shortage; Water tax; Virtual water; Water management; Environmental policy; Total emission control; Water transfer; Emission permit trading; Input-output technique; Computable general equilibrium. Biography Qin Changbo began to pursue a Ph.D degree in the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) and Twente Centre for Studies in Technology and Sustainable Development, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands since March 2007. Qin Changbo earned an M.Sc degree in Environmental Science from Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES) in Beijing, China and a B.Sc degree in Environmental Engineering from Southeast University in Nanjing, China. Qin Changbo works in Environmental Strategy Institute, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning since June 2011. Qin Changbo’s current research focuses on environmental planning, environmental economics, computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, application of input-output techniques, water management, environmental and trade policy analysis.